Russia's military campaign in Ukraine is proceeding at an excruciatingly slow pace, the likes of which have not been witnessed in over a century of warfare. This alarming assessment comes from a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a prominent think tank based in Washington, D.C. The findings indicate that while Moscow claims to be making progress on the battlefield, the reality is starkly different: Russia is experiencing staggering losses for minimal territorial gains, signaling a disturbing trend towards long-term decline.
In a striking contrast to the Kremlin’s assertions of battlefield success, Russian troops have managed to advance a mere 15 to 70 meters each day during their primary offensives since the beginning of 2024. This rate of advancement is slower than some of the most brutal campaigns seen during World War I, as highlighted by CSIS.
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Since the invasion began in February 2022, Russian forces have incurred nearly 1.2 million casualties, with estimates suggesting that up to 325,000 of those are fatalities. This toll is unprecedented among major powers in any conflict since World War II. "Despite the declared momentum in the Ukraine conflict, the statistics reveal that Russia is bearing an immense cost for meager gains, confirming its status as a declining power," states CSIS in its annual review.
Meters, Not Breakthroughs
The sluggish pace of advancement is particularly evident on the eastern front of Ukraine. For instance, the offensive aimed at Chasiv Yar, which commenced in February 2024, has only achieved an average daily progress of just 15 meters. After nearly two years of intense fighting, Russian forces have managed to move about 10 kilometers but have yet to fully secure control over the city. Similarly, the assault towards Kupyansk, which started in November 2024, has advanced at a rate of approximately 23 meters daily. The operation against Pokrovsk, initiated after the costly capture of Avdiivka in February 2024, has seen advances of around 70 meters per day.
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Russia is increasingly utilizing Starlink technology to enhance its drone strikes deep within Ukrainian territory, attempting to counteract Ukrainian electronic warfare and exploit weaknesses in air defense systems.
After two years of conflict and approximately 50 kilometers of battles, Russian forces now control most of the city, according to CSIS.
To put this into perspective, during World War I's infamous Battle of the Somme, French troops managed to progress about 80 meters daily, while American forces at the Battle of Belleau Wood in 1918 advanced at approximately 410 meters each day.
Massive Losses, Minimal Gains
Despite the heavy casualties, territorial acquisitions have been alarmingly insignificant. In 2024, Russian forces captured roughly 0.6% of Ukraine's land, followed by 0.8% in 2025—totaling less than 1.5% combined since the start of last year. At the height of the full-scale invasion in March 2022, Russian troops momentarily occupied around 115,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. However, by November 2022, Ukrainian forces had successfully reclaimed approximately 75,000 square kilometers through effective counteroffensives.
Today, Russia maintains control over about 120,000 square kilometers, encompassing roughly 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that were seized prior to 2022. According to CSIS, approximately 75,000 square kilometers were acquired during the ongoing war itself. "These outcomes fall significantly short of Moscow's objective to conquer Ukraine militarily," the report concludes.
In drawing a historical parallel, CSIS notes that it took the Red Army 1,394 days to reach Berlin during World War II. By December 2025, Russia had reached the same duration in its campaign but had only advanced as far as Pokrovsk, remaining over 500 kilometers away from Kyiv.
Attrition as a Strategy
Following its inability to achieve a swift victory over Ukraine in 2022, Russia has resorted to a strategy of attrition. This approach involves relentless infantry charges, artillery strikes, glide bombs, and drone warfare aimed at exhausting Ukrainian defenses—an endeavor that comes at an enormous human cost, with hopes of eventually depleting Ukraine’s military and societal resources.
While the report indicates that Russia has made tactical adaptations, such as increasing its use of drones and enhancing electronic warfare capabilities, it has not succeeded in achieving operational breakthroughs that could destabilize Ukraine’s front lines.
Economic Strain and Long-term Challenges
On a broader scale, CSIS asserts that the conflict is revealing deeper structural flaws within Russia’s economy. Manufacturing has contracted for much of 2025, economic growth has slowed to a mere 0.6%, inflation remains elevated, and labor shortages have intensified.
Russia is also lagging in crucial technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence, and notably lacks any companies listed among the top 100 technology firms globally in terms of market capitalization. The report highlights that Russia is increasingly reliant on China for trade, energy exports, and essential components required to support its military operations—from machine tools to missile-related materials.
While sanctions have not led to an outright collapse of the Russian economy, CSIS concludes that the ongoing conflict is locking the nation into a cycle of low productivity growth, technological stagnation, and escalating long-term costs.
A War Russia Cannot Win Quickly—or Cheaply
The report underscores that Russia is not on a path to an inevitable victory on the battlefield. Instead, it is advancing in a grinding manner that incurs significant human and economic costs, all while relying on propaganda to maintain an illusion of success both domestically and internationally.
"The great irony," CSIS observes, "is that Russia's actual performance on the battlefield is far from its ambitious goals—yet the Kremlin persists in its willingness to continue the fight, regardless of the price."
Alisa Orlova is the Head of News and a correspondent at Kyiv Post, overseeing the newsroom's coverage of breaking news and global events. With more than seven years of experience in television journalism, Alisa has reported on international and Ukrainian politics, distilling complex narratives into more digestible stories. She joined the Kyiv Post team in September 2022.
