In light of the increasing influence of China, Australia is being urged to strengthen its diplomatic, trade, and security relations with Taiwan. Prominent scholars and former high-ranking officials are sounding the alarm that if the Australian government continues on its current cautious trajectory, these vital ties may become stagnant.
A recent report by the United States Studies Centre (USSC), titled "Australia-Taiwan Relations: Policy Options and Priorities for Engagement," compiled insights from a group of respected academics and experts. This includes contributions from notable figures such as Peter Varghese, former Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT); Rachel Noble, a former Director-General of the Australian Signals Directorate; and Lieutenant General Gregory Charles Bilton, the former Chief of Joint Operations.
China's stance toward Taiwan is clear: it considers the island part of its territory and has intensified its military maneuvers in the vicinity, actions that a senior U.S. general has described as "rehearsals" for potential invasion scenarios. According to Peter Dean, a co-author of the report and a senior defense adviser at USSC, China has also increased efforts to limit Taiwan's international diplomatic engagement. He argues that Australia should proactively seek new avenues to deepen its relationship with Taipei in response.
Dean stated to ABC, "If Australia truly values the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and aims to deter conflict, why aren't we taking more decisive actions to support Taiwan amid unprecedented gray-zone tactics and economic pressure, especially as other nations ramp up their initiatives?"
The report advocates for a significant enhancement of Australia’s diplomatic footprint in Taiwan, suggesting ministerial visits, increased cooperation in various sectors such as green energy, greater awareness of Taiwan within Australian public service, and tentative steps toward bolstering defense links, including the appointment of a de facto defense attaché in Taipei.
Despite Taiwan being among Australia's key trading partners, the federal government's longstanding One China policy limits its actions. This policy officially recognizes the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate government of all of China while acknowledging, without outright acceptance, Beijing's claim over Taiwan.
While this framework allows for informal political interactions and a strong economic partnership between Australia and Taiwan, there is growing discontent in Taipei regarding the Albanese administration's reluctance to support Taiwan's bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) or to pursue new formal trade agreements. The USSC report cautions that Australia’s focus on maintaining stable relations with Beijing has inadvertently led to a decline in Taiwan's trust in Australia as a dependable strategic ally. It further notes that other allied nations have been more open to significantly enhancing their ties with Taiwan.
The report emphasizes that relying on caution as a default strategy in engaging with Taiwan, coupled with an overly simplistic debate on the issue, has severely restricted the development of a nuanced long-term policy regarding Taiwan. It acknowledges that any effort to expand defense ties with Taiwan must be approached with great care, given China's sensitivity around the matter. Nonetheless, it suggests that Australia could contribute more to enhance Taiwan's defenses by providing logistical and material support for dual-use technology, improving Taiwan's readiness for potential conflicts, facilitating informal dialogues, appointing a defense attaché in Taiwan, and allowing Taiwanese diplomats direct communication with the Defense Department in Canberra.
Professor Dean, also a key contributor to the 2023 Defence Strategic Review, emphasized Australia's responsibility in fortifying Taiwan's security. He remarked, "This benefits Taiwan by strengthening its democratic institutions, enhancing its resilience against shocks, and improving supply chain stability."
However, former DFAT Secretary Peter Varghese expressed reservations about the recommendations regarding defense collaboration, warning that they could have "serious adverse implications for our relationship with China without delivering tangible benefits to Australia that would warrant incurring such costs." He articulated that developing defense connections with Taiwan approaches the threshold of a formal state-to-state relationship, which poses risks to the existing status quo.
The report refrains from advocating for Australia to openly endorse Taiwan’s CPTPP application but suggests exploring opportunities in conjunction with other countries to assist Taiwan's engagement with the trade agreement. There appears to be a broad consensus among experts that Canberra could at least consider proposing negotiations regarding Taiwan's accession.
Additionally, it presents a series of recommendations aimed at strengthening economic relations, such as establishing new supply chains for critical minerals, seeking opportunities in battery technology and other emerging sectors, and enhancing collaboration through fresh partnerships between states and cities.
Professor Dean highlighted that the Australian discussion often becomes fixated on the notion of "Taiwan as a security dilemma that could drag us into conflict with China." He advocates for a broader public dialogue about Taiwan's critical role in global supply chains and the potentially dire consequences of any invasion or blockade.
He remarked, "We need to view this as a regional challenge and management issue, rather than solely through the lens of U.S.-China rivalry or whether we would enter a war over this. If we observe the actions of other nations, they are focused on building measures to prevent conflict and ensuring the status quo is maintained for as long as possible."
Dean concluded by stating, "By concentrating exclusively on the worst-case scenario, we narrow the conversation and consequently limit policy discussions and available options."
What do you think about Australia's approach to Taiwan? Should we take bolder steps to support Taiwan, or is caution the best course of action? I'd love to hear your thoughts!
